Weekly: The Signal and the Noise
FEB 2, 2026
Here’s a concise and balanced intro that aligns with your analytical weekly style: Last week, Re7 Capital founder Evgeny Gokhberg joined The Street Roundtable to discuss why framing crypto through a bull-or-bear lens no longer fits an ecosystem defined by structural adoption and cross-cycle growth. In this week’s note, we take that perspective further, examining recent market volatility through the lens of duration-driven repricing, liquidity dynamics, and fundamental divergences between price and on-chain activity.
Last week, Re7 Capital founder, Evgeny Gokhberg, shared his perspective with The Street Roundtable on why the traditional bull/bear narrative no longer reflects crypto’s evolution, and how long-term adoption is advancing across key use cases.
Weekly Summary
State of the market
Drivers of valuations and volatility
Duration-driven repricing theory
Exploring the inflection signals emerging from the surface
The Signal and the Noise
“Prediction is fundamentally a probabilistic exercise.”
Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise
State of Play
Crypto markets saw their largest sell-off since March 2025 (-11.2%), moving back toward the April 2025 tariff-threat lows.
It wasn’t just the magnitude of the drawdown that echoed that period—valuations wicked down to the April 2025 lows - a level that acted as resistance for much of 2024.
BTC/USD weekly.
Average returns in the subsequent 4 weeks after severe drawdowns in BTC show positive average returns suggesting BTC has historically shown positive average forward returns after severe drawdowns.
Median returns are lower, indicating a right-skewed distribution where a few outsized rebounds pull up the mean.
Positive average returns are also found in the subsequent 3 and 6 months also…
The alt market has also wicked down to 2025 tariff lows.
Alt sector global market capitalisation ($).
A Story of Fundamental Divergences
Despite giving back all gains since then, we’ve seen the following fundamental growth over the same period:
DeFi TVL increased 1.4x
DEX volume increased 1.5x
DEX perp users 2x
On-chain active loans 2x
Perp volume has increased 2.5x
RWA total-value on-chain 3x
Perpetual OI 3.5x
Stablecoin volume 3.8x
RWA on-chain holders 8x
Temporary Short-Term Price Drivers
In order to make sense of the current market volatility and disconnect from fundamentals, we have to look at the core driving factors of valuations.
Out of all the sectors, the crypto market has been trading most in line with software since October and YTD.
20D rolling correlation with BTC/USD across various sectors.
One explanation is duration sensitivity: long-duration assets derive most of their value from far-future cash flows or adoption, making them highly sensitive to liquidity and discount rates.
As US liquidity has drawn down to 2023 lows, SaaS and BTC have underperformed accordingly. The 10/10 liquidation event exasperated the impact even more.
With the Treasury General Account effectively constrained and a potential government shutdown resolution imminent, a decline in the TGA balance should inject liquidity, supporting an increase in US domestic liquidity.
US domestic liquidity (left) vs. Treasury General Account (right).
Longer-Term Inflection Points
This liquidity impulse could allow valuations to catch up to fundamental growth story we’re seeing behind the scenes.
Due to U.S.-driven factors, the crypto market is trading near record-low discounts to global liquidity, last seen in June 2022.
At the same time, SaaS is fast approaching its 3 year trend line…
iShares Software Index (weekly).
BTC’s performance has lagged high-growth tech to such a degree it has now re-traced down its 6 year support.
Crypto/NDX ratio (weekly).
And the current equity weakness is completely in line with expectations and will likely be temporary given the impact of liquidity growth, direction of interest rate changes, and economic growth.
Global net liquidity (white; 80D lead) vs. NASDAQ futures (blue) vs. SPX futures (orange).
We see key multi-year supports being met elsewhere too.
Arguably, the most underappreciated and underreported chart is BTC/Gold. Last week, BTC/Gold was the most oversold on record as the ratio reached its 6-year support.
BTC/Gold ratio (weekly).
This is important because gold tends to front-run liquidity shifts, and its rally often signals accelerating liquidity growth ahead.
Bitcoin typically lags these moves, meaning extreme weakness in BTC/Gold has historically marked peak liquidity stress rather than a lasting shift in relative value.
About Re7
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